Zeev's Turnips - No Politics Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics

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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (94359)	7/15/2002 7:50:45 AM
From: Hobie1Kenobe	of 99280

George - Tero has some relevant comments here.....fwiw.... thestreet.com Return to Twin Peaks 7/15/02 07:15 AM ET Mmmm... I picked the wrong five days to step out from the desk -- I'm in danger of losing the plot just as the business scandals start bleeding into political scandals. This, of course, is the crucial juncture in any major crash. After the notorious "Corporate Responsibility" speech last Tuesday events have started blurring together in a "Twin Peaks" sort of way. Cheney got sued for defrauding investors and is now evading journalists and refusing to answer any Haliburton inquiries. Washington Post published a Sunday bombshell proving that Mr. Bush was informed about the Haliburton "liquidity crisis" weeks before he sold stock. Mr. Bush has also chosen to stonewall, refusing to release minutes from Harken meetings. The new chief of the "corporate SWAT unit" is Larry Thompson -- the man soiled in the Providian scandals where the company settled fraud charges for 400 million. This choice is so surreal it defies sarcasm. But only a little more surreal than the sight of Paul O'Neill defending Harvey Pitt yesterday. This reminds the investors of two existing problems -- A) Paul O'Neill and B) Harvey Pitt. Later this week the delicate foreign currency traders may be exposed to the degrading spectacle of a top Bush administration official Thomas White invoking his Fifth Amendment rights at the Enron hearings. As the grandiose "Corporate Responsibility" drive of the Bush administration disintegrates into a low and sordid farce, the markets are reacting. The panic buying of yen and euro are today driving them close to 116 and 1.00 levels. I'm sure most commentators are choosing to focus on this Merck acquisition and coming earnings reports… but at this juncture, the political scandals are on the verge of overwhelming the business news. Should we focus on earnings? Or is the political situation barreling out of control? It's the currency traders that will make this call, I suspect. Lord knows that mainstream economists are of little use here. They are going into a catatonic state of denial -- the consensus is still for no double-dip next winter and dollar at 99-1.00 euros for the next 3-12 months. As the world teeters on the brink of a systemic crisis, most strategists are going on a mental holiday to Fantasy Island with Scooby-Doo and Stitch.

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