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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets

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To: Robert Douglas who wrote (3471)	7/15/2002 10:24:21 AM
From: Robert Douglas	Read Replies (1) of 3536

Well, we reached parity on the euro today. Where to from here? I first bought the euro around this level on the way down. At that time, I thought a rise to 110 was on the way. Since then we have been down to 84. Fortunately for my trading account, I increased my position tenfold in the high 80s and have a nice profit to show for my pains and stubbornness.<g> I'm going to have to think through my original goal and see if I still think 110 is in the cards. Right now, without going over the numbers too carefully, I would have to say yes. Why? Because the U.S. trade deficit (which everyone has been saying doesn't matter) needs to shrink. Until it does, you will have persistent pressure on the dollar. This pressure will last for years and make any rallies in the greenback short-lived and give way to lower lows.

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