Strictly: Drilling II Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II

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To: Little Joe who wrote (15730)	7/15/2002 12:41:44 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) of 36161

RE: Deflation vs. Inflation ...I think the Pimco boys have this one right on. Better for the Fed to 'err in doing something they know how to control - re: inflate now & then they can always ramp rates and throw people out of work to control it vs. risk sinking into the abyss of a Japanese style secular deflation. I think they will start inflating and ramping money supply to what ever degree is needed... they have no other choice and I think we might see a surprise rate cut soon... sure, the knee-jerk response is that would/could scare the markets....but, it's too late to worry about that; as imho - THEY'RE SCARED $HITLE$$ already now ~ The major unanswered question - is if/when US Companies can turn earnings around. HUI looking like it's going to test resistance soon... this will be the most significant mid-cycle test for the Gold Stocks we've had yet. Greenprint gets to break out the Pom-Poms tomorrow on Capitol Hill tomorrow morning... let's see if the PPT "guns" the futures in a little "inside baseball" pre-orchestrated rally/trading opp. Whether it sticks, or not... THAT is the $64 question. The remainings earnings reports from INTEL IBM SUN MOTOROLA APPLE et al are going to be crucial to putting in an interim bottom here... Auto's as well - which I've said for months are at unsustainable sales levels and totally bastardized finance income with 0% incentives. This is a very interesting transition point for the market here. Can the Fed plug the dike and stop the hemmoraging ? Greenspan and the PPT vs. the declining dollar, foreign repatriation, contracting valuations, continual accounting scandals and the shadow of deflation looming ever larger. ...going to get real interesting real soon. PS: OSX breaking down badly...a slowing global economy will always trumps a supply disruption risk premium in crude. I can't imagine that Saddam could disrupt supply for more than 30-45 days max.

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