Allan, you didn't know me in my clown days, but I truly am an optimist and would rather be long. That said, as I've said for a spell now (back when you said you'd never seen me so bearish), it's not just that price is in a downtrend and we're highly susceptible to news shock, but it's also that a ton of the smartest, heaviest shorts on SI and elsewhere, in my eyes, have pretty much abandoned the short side, thus taking away a cushion (not the Commercials, though). Add to that, we're now in the "margin selling" window, and that will go on for a few days, no doubt, now that non-tech is joining in. So, to me, if you're looking for a buyable low, I suspect it comes earlier rather than later. I don't think we get a 1 week bounce here, for instance, and then new lows. I think we either have new lows next week. . . or we bounce for longer than a week or two to restart this whole process.
As for news shock (which could start a huge bear market rally as well), we've got earnings, Greenspan, and tons of econ numbers this week, so take your pick. Personally, with so much optimism in the press about MSFT's numbers, I think the "downside hope" is that their numbers are fine. . . but they also sound the "no turnaround" clarion call, and we repeat the reaction from last July.
Anyway, I might be all wet (again) and even I expect some of this selling pressure to abate over the next few days, so we'll see.
the freep |
