I'm not pessimistic, I'm realistic... I only wish these markets could move higher, but I think these markets have been artificially inflated, much like the NAZ, throughout the 90's and will now deflate just like the NAZ has already done... this has nothing to do with terrorism, and nothing to do with the headline news of corporate accounting fraud, these incidents are only coincidental and contiguous, and are grabbing the current headlines... historically, a normal bull market lasts five or six years and corrects for 2 1/2 or 3 years... this bull market lasted for 18 years, from 1982 to March of 2000... after the 1987 sell off, we should have seen a bull market until late 1992 or thereabouts... between late 1992 and March 2000, these markets were inflated due to fancy corporate book work and excesses in corporate expansion... prices should pull back to the 1992 levels... this means DOW 4000 is very possible...
After these markets begin to deflate, we could also probably see a similar sell off in real estate, and the U.S. may find itself in the same long depressive cycle Japan has been suffering for the past so many years... if this scenario pans out, then our bull markets should begin to emerge around the Summer of 2009 and be in full swing by 2010.....BWDIK
Meanwhile, I plan to remain short.....
GZ |
