billkirn, you wrote in your post #956, "John, if you can make a good case for doubling your revenue assumptions, then I feel pretty safe at 140 per share in 1997"
Bill there are currently 36,000 patients. My 400M was based on 80,000 patients in one year (80,000x5,000). Lets look at the scrip data to see the possible # of patients in one year, as a function of new scrips per wk.
New Rx/wk// Patients in one yr // Rev //
(IMS and non-retail) (52xnew Rx +36,000) (patients x 5,000)
4,000 244,000 1,220M
3,500 218,000 1,090M
3,000 192,000 960M
2,700 176,400 882M
2,400 160,800 804M
SO WE NEED TO AVG 2,400 NEW PATIENTS PER WK OVER THE NEXT YEAR TO MAKE YOU FEEL SAFE AT 140 PER SHARE 1997.
For the week ending on the 4th of july there was 3537 new Rx/wk.
IMS # was 2405 divided by 0.68 (since up to one third of patients are obtaining the drug through state ADAP programs, home healthcare agencies, and government clinics
The week ending on 27 June (a non-holiday week). IMS reported 3,011 new Rx divided by 0.68 is 4428 new scrips.
The fol new scrip #s account for all channels (IMS/0.68).
6/13 3985 new Rx
6/20 3794 new Rx.
6/27- 4428 new Rx.
7/4(holiday)- 3537 new Rx.
- The avg for four weeks is: 3936.
Bill, every week check if new scrips (IMS/0.68) are above the 2400 level. Then after a few weeks I believe you will feel very safe at a price tgt of $140.
Regards, John. |
