Hello Maurice, if Chinese troops in Surinam is a good friendly idea, what about Moroccan troops (totalling 200k fighters)
stratfor.com
in Spain (summing up to 400k soldiers)?
A party?
Can the Spanish liberation of Rock of Gibraltar space be far away in time.
stratfor.com
stratfor.com
Moroco-Spain Dispute Not Heading to War
15 July 2002
Summary
Tensions between Morocco and Spain heated up this past week when Rabat sent troops to an island claimed by Madrid. But despite the involvement of military forces, neither side wants war, and some form of sanctions is more likely than a full-scale military conflict.
Analysis
Spain warned Morocco July 15 to remove troops that were deployed last week to the disputed Mediterranean island of Perejil, located 200 meters off the Moroccan shore. Spanish Prime Minister Jose Maria Anzar did not threaten military action over Morocco's move, which the Spanish government has called a violation of its sovereignty, but sanctions from the European Union have been suggested.
Rabat has provoked this confrontation after more than a year of rising tensions between the two countries over disputed territories in and around Morocco. However, neither side wants to go to war, and a military conflict remains a remote possibility. The challenge to Spain ultimately is a symbolic gesture that could help Morocco's leadership counter domestic resentment over its cooperation with the United States.
The two neighbors have had conflicts with each other in the past. In October 2001 Morocco withdrew its ambassador to Spain after Madrid granted a prospecting license to Repsol YPF for offshore oil fields near the Spanish-owned Canary Islands. Morocco says these fields are in its territorial waters.
Besides territorial disputes, a flood of illegal immigrants coming from North Africa through Morocco into Europe and Spain has aggravated relations. The two are also at loggerheads over agricultural imports to the EU and Morocco's refusal to renew a fishing-license agreement for EU countries including Spain.
The latest dispute broke out when Morocco deployed around a dozen troops to the island known in Spain as Perejil and in Morocco as Leila. After they landed, the troops immediately set up camp and raised a Moroccan flag. Rabat justified the maneuver by saying that the troops were setting up a base that would be used to stop illegal immigrants and fight terrorism, an oblique reference to its support for the U.S.-led war against al Qaeda.
Spain reacted by deploying several patrol boats to the island, which is little more than an outcropping of rocks about the size of a football field. Madrid also reinforced forces at its two nearby enclaves on the North African coast, Ceuta and Melilla, including sending three warships to Ceuta and using four military helicopters to patrol the area, Agence France-Presse reported.
The EU has come out in support of Spain, calling on Morocco to withdraw the troops immediately. Meanwhile the 22-member Arab League announced its support for Rabat, calling the disputed island part of Morocco's territory.
Despite Rabat's provocation and Madrid's military response, there are several factors that make a war between the two sides unlikely. For one, EU Commission President Romano Prodi told Morocco July 15 that the EU might impose sanctions if the troops are not removed, saying that measures could be taken "at the community level if necessary."
So far neither Spain nor the EU has made any specific threats, but the BBC reported that there were hints that Madrid might suspend a 1991 cooperation and friendship treaty with Morocco as part of a sanctions package.
Sanctions against Rabat from the European Union would devastate Morocco's developing economy. Its top trade partners are France, Spain, the United Kingdom, Germany and Italy -- all EU countries. Spain accounts for 9 percent of Morocco's exports and 12 percent of its imports, second behind France.
Moreover, despite all its bravado, Morocco cannot compete with Spain economically, militarily or politically. Morocco's $33.4 billion GDP is miniscule compared to Spain's $558.6 billion GDP. Its air force and navy are also small, outdated and pathetic when compared with those of NATO-member Spain.
Morocco may hope to capitalize on its role as a frontline state in the U.S.-led war against terrorism to gain Washington's support over the territorial issues. But despite the need for moderate Arab allies to combat al Qaeda, Washington isn't likely to involve itself in a dispute against Spain, another important U.S. ally. Rabat will have to depend on the Arab League, which compares poorly to the EU at the economic, military and political levels.
Without parity in military equipment, money to finance a conflict or the political backing of global powers, Rabat has little chance of winning a military confrontation. So why would Morocco deploy troops to an island knowing it would provoke a heated response from Spain?
The answer likely lies in the simple fact that Spain also has no desire to go to war over a tiny outcropping of rocks. Rabat knows this and also knows that it needed to respond in some manner to the pressure created by Madrid's actions in the Canary Islands. It also needs to demonstrate that Morocco will not be bullied by its more powerful European neighbor on issues like fishing rights or immigration.
From Rabat's perspective, deploying troops is a daring but largely symbolic maneuver. The symbolism is powerful though, most importantly because it demonstrates that Morocco -- despite its obvious inferiority -- is willing to challenge Spain.
This could help young King Mohamed IV score points with the Moroccan population at a time when the country is arresting alleged members of al Qaeda and when the Arab world is calling it a U.S. stooge. At the same time, as long as Morocco doesn't push too far, the move could be relatively cost-free since Spain, too, wants the dispute resolved without the use of force. |
