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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 288.52

-0.3%

Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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To: Sam Citron who wrote (4031)	7/15/2002 10:07:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) of 95420

Another reason why I take the '13 more years of the bear' predictions with a grain of salt is this: Nasdaq took 2 years to go from 5000 to 1300. Let's assume the end is at 650. That's another 50%. why would that take 13 years? Why would that happen at all in the face of a slowly improving economy accompanied by slowly improving earnings? Employment is a trailing indicator. Sam, you can make too much of past history, just like I did when I expected a V shaped bookings recovery a year ago. Were you an active trader that summer day in 1982? Or did you read about it? I'd rather say I don't know what will happen now. Zeev's most pessimistic scenario is still above 1000, I believe. He can be wrong. I know a lot more about Zeev's integrity than about Granville's. Lets not just repeat the self serving arguments of others. You don't know what will happen any more than most on SI, in spite of your reading. Gottfried

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