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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 288.52-0.3%4:00 PM EST
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To: Sam Citron who wrote (4031)7/15/2002 10:35:43 PM
From: Cary Salsberg  Read Replies (2) of 95420
 
RE: "...what type of bull or bear it is, i.e., the 16 month cyclical type or the 16 year secular variety."

You have to admit that the limited definition, the either or bear type, is a classic example of "generals fighting the last war!"

We are in the aftermath of a technology bubble. The world has never had one like this. 16 months is obviously too short. The destruction of technology companies and the obsolescence of the erroneously built technology infrastructure will not take 16 years. The gurus of the bear varieties miss the point and are ill equiped to deal with it if they didn't miss it. The key is not duration, but selection. A recovery in technology will come far sooner than anyone expects, but many companies will not benefit and will perish. The secular bear argument is like saying the dinosaurs will need 16 years to recover from the asteroid. The dinosaurs never recover, but the mammals arise far sooner.
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