Hi Haim, I do not believe much in conspiracies, but do believe in coincidentally shared interests.
I had also read somewhere that the Arabs have been sellers of USD to avoid potential confiscation in USD space on possible WAT-WOT requirements.
I also know the PBOC (Chinese central bank) had been in conversation with EU on diversifying China's reserve allocation (previously almost all USD) to a mix of USD/Euro. This is possibly done with US agreement as the US supposedly feels that the Yuan/USD embrace may be destabilizing to the rest of the Asia trading nations, including Japan.
The above mentioned known intentions and publicized announcements act to guide the rest of the herd, just as central bank announcements on gold sales used to do, and especially given that US officialdom did not say they would intervene to support the USD.
I know enough influential overseas Chinese out of the total diaspora (USD 1.5 trillion liquid asset spread over 55 million folks) are moving from a primarily USD allocation to a basket of currencies, as they believe the USD space has some problems, different but not smaller than that facing Europe, and that the solutions seem all centered around the printing press.
It seems a question of choosing the lesser of evils. Given that there are plenty of evils to go around in all currency space, the USD decline will be more smooth than abrupt, although the difference between smooth and abrupt is only a matter of degree.
I believe the AUD still has quite a run ahead of it, and eventually, CAN may tag along for a ride. Jyen may meander downward against the USD and I am prepared to short the beast. Euro represent a difficult guess for me, because I do not understand the attraction other than that global investor electorates are voting for it; but this is enough to make it rise in the mean and nasty time.
An oil shock could put the jimjam into Euro works, and that is precisely what may happen.
All wild stabbing random guesses, but we are forced to play this game, or surrender our perceived freedom to choose from alternative wealth destinies.
Chugs, Jay |
