Hi Sam,
I have little confidence in the integrity of political and business leaders, but I have great confidence that the 3 Lord of the Ring movies will be owned on DVD discs and loved by many generations of Americans. (I just finished reading the 4 books again after 36 years.) The bubble was the result of the gangsters from the business and political world perverting the promise of technology. The country has been reminded of the greed, stupidity, and lack of ethics of many so-called "leaders" and their followers, and the clean-up from the mess is of Superfund proportions, but technology marches on. It marches on at a pace and with a power that has never been seen in our history. We are 6 to 18 months away from the time that the greatest technology advance in history will become obvious to everyone. The bear market in technology has 0 to 12 months to go. Most of the worst market damage was done after 9/11. Further damage reflects problems at individual companies and these companies' failures affect the averages.
I believe, as I stated previously, the concensus of market historians armed with numbers and fuzzy interpretations of what went on behind the numbers are bearsh*t. Comparing the internet bubble to the tulip bubble is only valid in the area of human psychology.
It is wonderful that at 1300+ on the NAZ, almost a 75% fall, references are made to a 16 year bear and 1966-82, a period of less than a 20% fall with a maximum ~45%. Even better, is the wonderful "depression" from an 88 year old for whom the great depression was probably a seminal event in his life.
I am waiting for someone to step forward and offer suffering investors some useful advice. Something better than diversify and consider bonds or hide your money in gold and in your mattress.
Our society is made great by every individual who wants to create, build, and help (his fellow man). Technology is built by engineers and engineers spend most of their time thinking about creating, building, and helping. This is a far cry from businessmen and politicians who spend most of their time thinking about winning. I am content to place a prudent amount of my money on the most successful, most innovative, hardest working engineers. Their efforts are leveraged by engines of progress like Moore's Law, they are the hope of our world, and they and their companies will succeed and thrive. I expect to WIN on my bet on them. |
