Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (2285)	7/16/2002 10:20:48 AM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) of 89467

CS First Boston on the OSX... The OSX is now trading at December's levels in spite of more favorable fundamentals and outlook. Inventories, for both oil and gas, are in better shape. The stocks are trading at a discount relative to commodity prices and inventories for the first time since September. Last winter's 1 TCF natural gas inventory overhang has been cut by over 60% and we are still working down the remainder. Natural gas supply/demand fundamentals look good with economic indicators pointing to an industrial recovery, down N. American spending squeezing supply, and gas cheap relative to oil spurring demand. Customer cash flows are robust and reinvestment rates are low, providing ample room for further spending increases. The risk-reward landscape for the OSX remains attractive, and we estimate full cycle downside of 30% to average trough values and upside of more than 80% to a cyclical peak in a flat tape. The near-term profile is down 15%, up 40%. A modest risk to this scenario, on top of a crummy broader market, is the oil price. However, at these prices, quit worrying about earnings and step up and take a swing for the fences.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next