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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs
SPY 659.00+1.0%4:00 PM EST
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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (37641)7/16/2002 11:51:39 AM
From: The Ox  Read Replies (1) of 68180
 
Hi Harry,
At some point the telecom market will turn and most will miss the leading indicators. I think we will see a very similar situation like we saw at the top of the bull run in semiconductors in 2000. Everyone was saying the sky is the limit but the underlying fundamentals, which was churning out excess capacity without the corresponding demand, caused the worst, quickest slowdown the industry had ever seen.

The enterprise side of the communications market is still present, albeit slow, even with the reduced capital outlay from most major corporations. Few companies are willing to pop for leading edge technology today, but they also know that they need these innovations at some point in the near future.

There will come a time when the telecom side sees the reverse. Everyone will be so bearish and have such a low expectation that the industry will find itself with excess demand and no additional capacity. I don't believe we have reached that stage yet and we probably won't for another 4 to 8 quarters but I think the end is closer than many think. I've seen a few people who are insisting that it will be 2006 or 2007 before this sector starts seeing significant demand. My guess is that by 2004, we will see a dramatic change in this bearish view.
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