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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs

SPY 659.00

+1.0%

Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: The Ox who wrote (37651)	7/16/2002 12:24:16 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (2) of 68187

Hi Michael, Your 2004 turning point would correspond with the half way of of the current 7 year economic cycle. The end of 2003 corresponds to the 42 month point. I would expect the telecom equipment vendors to lack as the exceed capacity gets used up first, before carriers start to add capacity in the early stage of an economic uptick. Have you done anything with TXCC yet? It is now under the $1.90 fair value you calculated. I think you posted you were cautious about management as they did not have a share buy back program. They did buy back some of the convertibles though instead of stock. The remaining cash they have on hand should cover them for 10 Q's at their current burn rate of 20 mil per Q. 2004 would be 6 Q's away with a little bit of a cash buffer. Again though, ADTN is indicating T1 growth will be flat to slightly down, so there is no hurry even at current levels.

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