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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs

SPY 677.58

-2.0%

Jan 20 4:00 PM EST

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (37663)	7/16/2002 5:58:37 PM
From: j g cordes	Read Replies (1) of 69918

RtS.. here's my take on tomorrow.. first I trade very short time horizons.. or sometimes I'll let profits run if the stock looks good. Because of that I'm normally trading recovery from extended optimism, dissapointments, continuing trends and swings.. with an eye on the larger picture like earnings and revenue. But the logic behind my trades is 60% technical, 30% psychological, and 10% gut... I went short the day before Bush spoke because the last time he did so the market tanked.. then went long when it was down 400 thinking it would turn up into Greenspan's speech. In each case it was a matter of finding stocks that were already going in the direction counter the move I expected.. the long trades will be closed tomorrow. As for INTC.. yes, its so big it affects sector money flow, but the variance of the analyst estimates versus what INTC reported is less than the variance of the price swings the affected stocks are making. Therefore its all news after the fact.. note in aftermarket that INTC is trading up a little. We have a depressed market with three days to options expiration. There's a lot of mis-bet derivatives' tension that needs to be worked out. The odds of having another Dow down day are very slim.. the last time we had a run this long was in 1984 if I remember. So odds favor and up day tomorrow, buying the bad news after all this selling of worrying over what might be wrong will make it an up day, and Greenspan's melodic intellectualism assured everyone there's nothing really to worry about other than a few more rogue corporate scandals in a recovering economy... which augers up. There's enough short out there to panic a rally.. really. :!) Jim

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