Tom, you make your points well. While it cannot be gainsaid that TK's position as an analyst behooves him to bahave more responsibly than he has tended to be, I am inclined to think that this is typical analyst territory. I am sure you are aware of innumerable instances of analysts who recommend or upgrade a stock after the stock has appreciated significantly, meaning, those who buy into the upgrade are buying into a scenario where a correction becomes more likely than any real price appreciation. I would ascribe the same level of scrupulous (sp?) or sensible behavior/recommendations from TK that I have seen from other analysts, i.e., none.
Now, that said, I still think that TK and his ilk do not intentionally mislead, for if they did, they could intentionally lead also, which they have shown themselves to be incapable of, QED.
One question I'd like to ask TK re: the "six months sooner" comments would be
"when had you expected them to start transitioning to beging with?" I don't view
MU as a "resource rich" concern. So, they are allocating limited resources to
position themselves to produce a premature product, one which they will have
to work their "cost reduction" magic on without the benefit of their Chief
Technology Officer.
I would be disinclined to believe that Micron (or for that matter any technical organization with a 100 people) would be a one-man wonder. Lowrey might have been a smart dude, but hardly the only one. More than likely, there is enough technical talent left in Micron to continue their cost-cutting magic, but all this talk (yours and mine) is hypotheses; so we will know for sure if MU fails to survive the wars down the years.
As to the timing and transition issue, Micron seems to have done it right with both 4 Mb and 16 Mb part; that is no guarantee they will get it right the next time around. However, the market seems to think that they will (or the stock would have been in the 20s by now). Micron, I think, is a better company than the bears typically credit it to be. I also think that they have a fundamentally sound plan for the future (diversified product line as well as lead with their DRAM expertise) and believe that the next semi upturn would bode well for micron longs.
Best Regards,
Sridhar |
