Clowinish Thoughts as well as other thoughts and questions.
Is it possible that some of these now tremendously smaller tech stocks have bottommed? I know you hate RMBS but it sure had a nice run from 3 to near 6. I lost a bet to you before, but I really doubt RMBS gets back to 3 again ever. It actually makes a profit and keeps chugging out licensing agreements with INTC and others. My biggest fear or RMBS was that INTC would drop support but that really does not seem likely. Sure wish I bought a big chunk at $3.
biz.yahoo.com
RMBS technology RDRAM is used in many things PCs SUN servers, HDTV, Sony Playstation, EMC storage devices etc. There is still a chance that it wins a reversal of the MU lawsuit but I think it was worth $3 easily just on RDRAM. It has a low PE at that price. All those markets it is in suck but they have to be worth something at some time don't they? At least the company has no debt.
What about ELON or CREE. ELON seems to be growing but I do not know if it is sustainable. At least it makes a profit. CREE just won a govt contract and if its wireless applications ever take off CREE should too. I am probably way earlie with these kind of bottom fishing thoughts but many of the small companies slices to 1/2B or less cap IF they survive, should be worth a lot more that that some day. I feel the same way about some small bios (but I do not know which ones).
Don't get me wrong as I think this market has a lot further down to go. INTC MSFT QLGC BRCM BRCD INTC all the multi billion dollar pieces of crap that everyone runs to, deserve to get quite a haircut and probably will. For the life of me I do not know what is holding up crap like MU, nor do I see how EXPE ever got to 80.
However, I am having a hard time shorting after these drops so I just sit in cash and shake my head, taking an occasional scalp out of FNM or IBM or whatever.
I am stating to wonder if the market has gotten a hint of the coming double dip recession with the likes of warnings from whirlpool, Maytag, as well as the housing sector. The S&P keeps getting clobbered far more than the Naz. Could there be a rotation out of the S&P into select tech, or tech in general. Perhaps everyone that wanted out of tech got out and the hedge funds are now 100% in control of tech and will just whipsaw the stuff to death until they get the bargains they are after (don't puke - Like RMBS at $3). At any rate I am pretty sure that tech shorts probably should be balanced with other shorts, but the way clowns think, "bargain hunting" could begin at any time. I find it interesting that after this huge drop that you are thinking short and hold is in order. Shit I wish I shorted the spoos 200 points ago and sat back and collected profits.
I have long thought that the SPOOS were as overvalued as tech and now we are seeing tough love there. Silly PEs, economy headed into recession, debt everywhere and after plenty of tries at shorting stuff like HD, C, BAC, COF, etc and getting my head handed to me on the platter it looks like the last round a few weeks ago was THE time to get short and stay short that stuff. I was too chicken to be huge short. Instead I was short IBM and in the HUGE DOW drop, that POS just went sideways. What Now. At least I got a amall piece of EXPE and FNM.
Earlie, Tippett, Patron, board, thoughts on any of this.
Thanks
M |
