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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: mishedlo who wrote (180538)7/16/2002 10:38:18 PM
From: Earlie  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
Mis:

Not clownish thoughts, just darned good introspection following some of the most turbulent market action any of us have ever witnessed.

If it is acceptable, I will just add a few comments to your thoughtful piece.

It is entirely possible that some of the techs have bottomed, but most are nowhere near. PEs not only have to reflect the profits implosion as well as the horrendous debt loads, but also they also have to "overshoot" as much to the downside as they did to the upside in the mania. Patience my friend.

DDR is rapidly becoming the accepted standard in the field in run-of-the-mill PCs and that is where the volumes are. And there is no market impetus for greater speed in any event. Buying this stock is a bet on a difficult and time-consuming legal wrangle. Intel already cut the cord many months ago and owned up to it being a mistake, so I would be surprised if there was any significant change in that "strained" relationship.

ELON and Cree,..... not enough homework for an opinion.

Shorting is a tough game, especially when some of the excesses have been wrung out. That said, so long as you can ride out the rallies (or dodge them), the bearish trend will likely paper over your mistakes equally as well as does the bullish trend in a mania. Certainly the imploding big picture fundamentals are on the bears' side.

Cash is not all bad. Once this thing really gets into gear, the few with cash should be able to buy hard assets at truly bargain prices. Fortunes were made in the thirties by the few who could still write a cheque when all the rest of the world wanted to sell.

Do we hear most of our neighbours ranting about never wanting to hear the word stock ever again? No? Then generically, it is too soon to be a stock buyer.

There is a great deal of rotation going on for sure. Personally, I don't worry about it too much. So long as you catch the occasional good ride on a stock in a well developed spin or spiral dive, not much to worry about.

We all miss most of the good rides and just have to be spectators to them. "Can't dance with all the girls" comes to mind. Find the companies where the profits have disappeared and where huge debt is being humped. Sooner or later a real slide into the gravel pit develops. Rejoice in the minimal risk such scenes provide. (g)

Best, Earlie
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