I've gotten 3 PM's over the last 24 hours that make me think that it would be good to summarize concisely what I think at this juncture, in case 3 other people give a damn. -g/ng
At the end of last week I was looking for another low to finish what I am reading as a wave 3. I thought it would come starting late Monday or early Tuesday. That was incorrect: when we slid Monday it became clear the down was early. The late ramp was overdone, but I bought it anyway and outlined what I'd thought we'd get for a rally. To summarize:
I think we are in a wave 4 rally that will be volatile and messy, i.e., lots of overlap, not a nice trend. I think this rally will last a few weeks, not the 6 to 8 weeks that many are calling for.
If the action over the next two weeks is not messy, then it is a warning to look for a different read. Also, if we get over SPX 960, just above the putative neckline, we'll have another warning.
After this messy 4, I am looking for an sharp wave 5 drop to as low as Dow 7,400.
I see an important turn coming on August 1 and I really expected it to be a low, the end of this decline. This is one of the factors that gives me pause and makes me not want to be anything more than wiggle long here. My stop for my wiggle long is around Dow 8380. |
