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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 161.43+1.4%Nov 12 3:59 PM EST
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To: 16yearcycle who wrote (10432)7/17/2002 1:00:39 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) of 10921
 
debt levels are much higher now than in 1990

you comment about past history in 1987-1992
unfortunately federal, corporate, household debt levels are much higher now
past is hardly prologue anymore

federal debts might be around 2x now
corp debts might be around 3x now
household debts might be 2x now

different stage in the 70-year cycle
the lack of capex response to 11 Fed cuts is critical
and the lack of stock response to 11 Fed cuts

contrarian games have been a losing strategy in recent months
just like buying the dips have resulted in huge losses

next up is more layoffs, and their impact all around
such as collapsed consumer spending patterns
which will cut off capex completely
then layoffs accelerate and wont stop until 10%
then real estate gets whacked, the final bubble

keep playing contrary games until you are broke
wont work, not here, not now
a deep long recession is coming
stocks forecast it, and dollar confirms it

for proof of something eerily wrong, check DJUtility index
in this low interest rate envmt, it is IN SHARP STEADY DECLINE
this indicates (as Richard Russell points out) a debt meltdown

and also, never since 1960 have first-time unemployment claims experienced a double dip, then rise to higher levels
it did so this past year ominously
/ jim
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