Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch Message Board

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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch

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To: stockman_scott who wrote (2429)	7/17/2002 2:04:23 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) of 89467

only remaining viable contrarian strategy: defy economists since 1998 they have been wrong in an abominal and embarrassing manner lately they are almost in unison expecting a moderate GDP growth for the remainder of this year and next but they focus on the wrong thing now: inventory they should focus on the critical elements within the economy, the driving forces of this STRUCTURAL RECESSION namely debt collapse, deflation, and huge excess capacity the end result is horribly depressed earnings they also focus on consumer spending far too much instead, they should give much greater emphasis to the absence of capex spending investment in capital equipment is the top of the economic multiplier trickledown food chain it is totally absent now also, they dismiss all claims that the "wealth effect" will foster big consumer spending pullbacks the Stanford researcher demonstrated years back that losses result in far greater cutbacks in spending than gains result in added spending as investors stare at the age clock, realize 401k pensions are decimated, and then check their debt levels, they will cut back in spending soon no, I think layoffs will be greater than they expect they dont discuss the DoubleDip in first-time jobless claims for the first time since 1970's, it dipped then rose higher and it still rising now sorry, but a recession next year is in the cards here the stock market is forecasting it the dollar is confirming it and the DJUtility Index is sending a frightening signal its message is DEBT COLLAPSE / jim (contrary to economists ALWAYS)

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