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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 283.56-1.7%4:00 PM EST
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To: Sam Citron who wrote (4093)7/17/2002 2:46:12 PM
From: scott_jiminez  Read Replies (2) of 95422
 
<< I intend to purchase more of these and the others as conditions warrant.>>

Excuse me for being the 4,000,000,000 lb. pussy cat in the room but 'conditions have warranted' for ~6 months now...a period producing quite healthy negative returns in the sector.

In fact, it is the stocks telling us the 'conditions' are lagging indicators and the semiconductor industry is already in a second leg down of contraction.

And since there's no reason to doubt that KLIC* remains the bellwether, yesterday's earnings report strongly suggests the 'real' recovery will not be apparent until 2003.

Or beyond.

===============
*I suggest investors absorb the divergence between KLIC and other equipment stocks today. I can't tell you how many times this has happened in the wake of KLIC's earnings report. And as night follows day within 4-6 weeks 95% of the rest of the sector will implode as well. Investors in the equipment sector apparently never learn: they clearly feel, once again, KLIC's problems are company specific. They will soon be shown that if they had studied parallel circumstances from the near-past, they would have understood KLIC's travails are a harbinger for everyone else.

Just wait...and watch the dominoes fall.
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