Art -
I generally agree with you. And I've never gone short anything. (however, as a hedge I think it a valid strategy in some circumstances). But in this case, things just don't seem right.
Lexar jumped from $3 to $5 based on an ON24 piece that said nothing but "this is a good example of a valid 'low price' purchase." At this point, if you exclude cash, LEXAR is starting to approach SNDK's valuation!
Looks like an arbitrage opportunity to me. I'm not going to short it because as you say, there are lots of variables here. However, shorting LEXAR at $5 appears more logical to me than going long SNDK above $50, which I did...repeatedly.
As for the $10 rule, I think it's lost quite a bit of its value because so many stocks were issued, got financing, or split during the bubble. A good example is PALM, which at $1.50 sports quite a hefty market cap. If all you look at is the stock price, you'd think it was crap rather than a market leader with over a billion in revenues that has maintained its OS share against Microsoft for years.
Andre |
