Re: "6 million CPU sales and CPU revenues of $380,000,000, AMD's ASP was $63.33"
I don't understand at all how AMD could have ended up with a $63.33 ASP. I might be mistaken, but it sounded like from the CC that AMD sold more Duron CPUs this quarter than anything else. How is that possible when Fab25 has already been fully converted to flash?
My only hypothesis is that AMD's inventory glut in Q1 hurt them badly, and their customers didn't want to buy any more product. Therefore, AMD shut down the majority of their production, and started taking back inventory to distribute to other customers, much of which were Durons. In order to sell out of these product and maintain their internal inventory levels, AMD had to sell them for dirt cheap (probably $20 or so).
This lowered overall ASPs, even though AMD was able to sell some parts in the high pricing range (>$200). Going forward, it doesn't seem that AMD will be forced to buy back so many parts, but at the same time, processor demand for them may continue to be low. I am predicting ahead of time that unit sales will continue to be <7M, and probably closer to 6.5M. ASPs, meanwhile, will recover to the $75 range, with a relief in pressure due to no Duron sales pulling them down, and increased pressure from Intel's high end offerings later this year.
Therefore, I will put forth my SWAG that AMD will sell 6.6M processors next quarter at an ASP of $75 for a total CPU revenue of $495M. I think that flash will improve by about 10% to $193M, and other revenues will continue to decline as AMD exits other IC businesses. Therefore, Q3 revenues might be somewhere close to $720M, an increase of 20%.
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