Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy?

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To: chojiro who wrote (6180)	7/18/2002 1:20:09 AM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) of 6974

>> It's on it's last breath folks <<I'd say that comment just amounts to trash talk, chorizo.>> I'm listening to the CC right now. I believe what I said has some merit. See further posts to validate my stance. Well there are a few points worth making on the bullish side. First, valuation. Sebl stock is 11$ right now, a 5.5 billion mkt cap with 2 billion in cash. If sebl (the stock) gets cut in half, it will be trading for cash. There aren't too many a-list companies trading for cash even in this bear... a few I can think of were in telecom which is a worse sector and none were profitable. So, somewhere between current share price and cash value will probably be the bottom for sebl... my guess is about 2pts downside max. (just a guess). Second, capex and tech spendng. Capex cuts hit the comm sector first, for routers and other hardware. Software has a longer leadtime for implementations etc. so it lagged a little. In may 2001 software spending was pretty good while cisco's business was collapsing. Now cisco + internet hardware is stabilizing and even improving (see extr's results)... software should follow in about 6 mos. Third in the call Tom talked about the 4th qtr generating 38-40% of license revenue for the year. The metrics show the same pattern happening this year but they said early on they want to guide conservatively. Still one of the Q&A's (heather Bellini) got Tom to admit that Q4 should be better than forecast. So, imo, reports of Mr. Siebel's death are greatly exaggerated! Best, Lizzie

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