crusty, fwiw I might would count that a little different.
Since the peak in June it is in a 53535 corrective sequence, which when complete would be the first major corrective leg. The second '3' doesn't show up too well on daily candlesticks, but as I recall it was there on the XAU hourlies. At present we are in a little 3 of the last 5 down, and you know what should happen from there. I figure about 5 more trading days minimum to complete the last 5 down, per present rate of progression.
Don't know if this count breaks any rules for sure, but the pattern seems to fit. Inference of course is more net correction down, before it bottoms at the end of the first major corrective leg. But definitely time to watch here.
The other inference from this count is that this complete corrective sequence could go on for some time, but the bottom of this last 5 down should be a fairly safe time to start going back in, for an IT corrective up that should yield some significant XAU points. Like maybe better than 50% of the June high to the low coming up.
I also like this count and timing inference with respect to the general market action. I still think we get a little gen market rally, about as soon as options are over. It is muted and fairly short, as there aren't as many suckers around any more. So, initially it drags PM's down, but before the rally runs its course PM's will already start to strengthen. imho. |
