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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: jcky who wrote (34593)7/18/2002 12:32:02 PM
From: Dayuhan  Read Replies (3) of 281500
 
at which point in the liberation of Iraq will the United States be viewed as oppressors? Isn't the United States just setting up a new time line in the post-Saddam Iraq for ethnic and tribal clashes?

I think that many Americans find it difficult to comprehend how difficult it is to establish democracy in these situations. We tend to assume that once the structures are in place, you just have an election and it just takes off. Doesn't usually happen that way, though. A particular problem arises in situations where primary loyalty is owned not to the "nation" (often an abstract concept), but to a clan or regional/ethnic group. When this happens - as it so often does in post colonial situations - democratic structures simply don't work. Voting is not based on issues or parties as we know them, but on clan or ethnic lines. The winning parties use their positions not to build the nation but to advance the interests of their own group. Other groups become aggrieved, and seek redress in extralegal ways.

Of course there's no shortage of other things that can go wrong. It's a complicated process. At best, I would expect Iraq to be a weak, dependent client state for a long time. There are many worse scenarios.
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