Peter & Jim:
The Homeboys have taught me one of the best lessons this year, although not without tuition! I've said it before but I might as well repeat it. Never short a story stock, based on the story.
The homeboys have been overpriced since December but for a number of reasons too numerous to list they defied gravity all spring. The only reason to short the homeboys was the story, which was valid, said they were too high. Unfortunately the story wanted to go higher.
Protection was to be had (see Dabum's numerous posts) by paying close and neutral attention to the charts, but it was difficult for me, because the story was so good. Add to that a little bit of dumb investor psychology, which was, since I made money shorting these guys in September and December, then got my bell rung in late January, I had a deep feeling that "they" owed me back, and that made me more willing to jump in in size and try to get what was mine. Lesson learned.
Now, what has changed? Simple. The homeboys' fundamentals have not changed one bit since 3 weeks ago, but they have all broken down technically and can be played that way. Sell short the rallies and buy back the dips.
But I am still very cautionary on these and other stocks, although I think it's a good time to short what were, up to a month ago, market darlings.
[Fwiw, I'm short BZH today, and HOV, again.]
Just my 2 cents,
Kb |
