you ask tough questions, expected from Comex guys
in one sentence you cited 30% inflation in insurance
then you wonder when inflation could take off
check your property tax bill also, big rise there too maybe
we already have some price inflation
but neither property tax nor insurance is in CPI index
I believe inflation is prevalent now in the cash-based economy
check utility fees, electricity, gas bills, insurance for home & business & car, property tax bills, income tax creep
I think we will have simultaneous inflation and deflation
in the debt-based economy of tech, telecom, retail, etc, we will see more debt liquidation and deflationary trends
this is Puplava's premise, supported so far
I like juniors and smalls for leverage, yes
actually I like miners with unopened mines, awaiting higher prices
with annual precious metal shortfalls, prices will rise from the fundamentals
smaller guys are more able to expand, discover new mines
my best guess is that the new Fed printed monetary stimulus monstrous printing press output will find its way into THE PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE, HIGHEST REWARD/RISK RATIO
and that is commodities
check CRB index chart, which looks good
the opposite of the Dow
I believe this decade will resemble the late 1970's with commodity prices rising
futures.tradingcharts.com
we have seen an orgy in paper assets
its bubble broke
some continue to fight their way inside its charred remains
I prefer to look at the next upcoming trends
the Great Bull Market of 1990's has now spawned the Great Bull Market in Commodities
it is early
which usually means ridicule comes from those still fighting last decade's battle on the wrong battlefield
the components of the XAU and HUI give you some names
check these
finance.yahoo.com
I dont like Newmont, but like to watch its action
they are huge
you must beware of hedged firms
the average is that miners have sold 3-4 years of future production
I eagerly await the bankruptcy of Barrick
they were formed by FedReserve and JPMorgan to sell gold straight out of the Central Bank vaults
they have 4 years of production sold forward
in May they received their first margin call
such conclusions have to be inferred, but with low error
as for timetables, really tough to see
labor negotiations will be amazing with UAW and car mfrs next summer
they will get crushed as mgmt wins on more issues
by early 2004, deflation should be waning
debt collapse is still accelerating
I read that 20 telecom firms went belly up in last 3 years
long long lists of bankruptcies
by late next year, we may see steady price trends
but bring in China into the equation
they will ensure the price pressures exist persistently
I dont think widespread price inflation will be seen again for a long time
I do believe that commodity and energy inflation will be a common and driving force by next year
natural gas prices are still holding up well
CRB index is ramping and trending up
Puplava's Storm Series is really worth reading
check www.financialsense.com
his Chapters 6,7,8 are outstanding
gold may be seen as a debt-world deflation hedge AND a commodity-world inflation hedge
that is my expectation, and so far, so good
I think the currency crisis will unfold gradually
when the US$ declines hard, then a hotpotato effect ensues
no economy wants a strong currency, since it hurts exports
the abuse has taken place with luxuries and whizbang product sectors
the abuse was with debt
as the Bible foretells:
"your money will become moth-eaten
wine and oil will become inexpensive, while necessities will become dear"
very thought provoking
in old times, wine and oil were luxuries
/ jim |
