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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II

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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (15929)7/18/2002 10:12:59 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor  Read Replies (3) of 36161
 
<<He not only must "pump up the volume" - he's going to.>>

I agree with you on many things, but not on this. With all due respect, Slider, even though he wants too, he can't. Why? 'Cause banks and other lending institutions are in the $hitter with their rapidly deteriorating loan portfolios, and aren't finding anyone to lend to who's credit worthy (see bottom graph):

research.stlouisfed.org

Lending has been shunted to the homebuilding segment, which is about to take it in the neck big time due to the consumer pulling it in. He's pushing on a string, debt trapping has already started, it's checkmate and he's done.
Therefore, BubbleBoy can print all he want, and lower short term rates all he wants (of course, that has consequences for the dollar and for long term bonds). Without lenders who want to lend and borrowers who are worth the risk, the "money" will just sit in the vault, figuratively speaking.

I'd also be careful about the airlines here (although LUV will be fine). They may get bailed out, but that's not to say that there equity holders will be made whole. Buy the debt if you're gonna play in that sandbox, it'll benefit bigtime if there's a recovery AND if there's some kind of bailout. Just MHO.

Regards

Patron
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