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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs
SPY 691.72-0.1%Jan 16 4:00 PM EST
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To: j g cordes who wrote (37696)7/19/2002 2:12:56 AM
From: Johnny Canuck  Read Replies (1) of 69822
 
>> now you're saying they're only relevant for last week!

I didn't say that. I said they had greater relevance the week before the options expiration week. That does not mean they don't have any effect the week of options expiration. We have all seen funny trading on individual stocks the day of options expiration.

>>I don't put much weight into max pain idea as I haven't
>>seen it useful except on options expiration day with OEX
>>or when there's very little volatility or trend in the
>>market generally for some stocks.

The market have been trendless the last few days, that is why I asked. The COMPX has been trapped in a trading range between 1370 and 1400. We briefly broke up to test the upper trend line at 1425, but it did not stick above 1400. We closed below 1370 today which broke the range and sets up a possible test of the 1325 intra-day low. Given it is the day before options expiration I would want to see follow through after the first hour of trading tomorrow before I would guess the index will continue in that downward direction.

I actually think the change in open option contracts is more important that the max pain calculation, but I don't subscribe to a service that gives that information anymore.

Let discuss this another time when I have more time. In the mean time I know they are experienced enough to know what is working for you.
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