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Strategies & Market Trends : Winter in the Great White North
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To: ralfph who wrote (2587)7/19/2002 12:22:31 PM
From: teevee  Read Replies (1) of 8273
 
ralph,

What effect would a invasion have on the price of gold? I have no opinion on that question but have thought about it. I would think gold would go up....but would it ? The market does not respond in a rational manner does it ?

If there is an invasion, I expect there would be an initial oil price shock in anticipation of a global oil crisis. I would liquidate every oil and gas stock I have into the ensuing rally. There is no doubt that Saddam would be replaced with a puppet regime that was pro western, providing oil and gas development and investment opportunities to the USA and Britain. Such an event could bust OPEC. Iraq's oil endowment is second only to Saudi Arabia.

This is only a wild guess, but I think gold would also initially move upwards, but with a collapse in oil prices that would accompany a pro western Iraqi regime, the gold price would probably fall off too.

I notice that various government's, including Canada, are dusting off and reviewing emergency plans for a global oil crisis. I assume this is in preparation for the invasion of Iraq sometime later this year, after being given notice by Dubya and Blair for what is coming down the pipe.

As an aside, In order to maintain a certain level of destabilization in the region, I wonder if a Kurdish faction would be installed as the new leadership, inflicting pain and suffering for the next 30 years as what was done to them by Saddam?
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