Sharp,
I'm not doing much of anything else today, so I might as well agree with what you post which is not, actually, at odds with what I posted.
If Fed funds of 1.75 have not brought out the corporate borrowers, then will 1.50? Mortgage rates are a little over 6%, will a mortgage rate of 5.85% (assuming bank "slippage") bring out the buyers?
Basically, if you agree with all my other points (and agree the charts say the channels for the hb's are all relentlessly down), then we are left with, will another 25 basis point cut start not a refinancing boom but a new house purchasing boom which will continue to levitate the homeboys at better than 2X book?
Running the printing presses, pumping liquidity might help the stock market temporarily (it did wonders in the last quarter of 1999 and the first quarter of 2000), but soon deficit spending and inflation will kill a stock market.
Best plan for the Fed is to stay at 1.75 or boost to 2.00, carefully, telling all and sundry that we are on the mend. And then hope we are.
Kb |
