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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 295.15

-2.3%

Nov 11 4:00 PM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (4156)	7/19/2002 2:52:25 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (3) of 95400

Cary, FWIW, here's a portfolio manager who takes a rather dour view of Moore's Law: excerpts: Moore’s Law dooms the semiconductor industry to an incurable addiction to growth. Merely keeping revenues unchanged requires getting customers to want twice the power every 18 months, so that they'll keep paying the same old price. If they want the same old power, there have to be twice as many customers -- because they'll only be paying half the price. ... For the semiconductor industry, Moore's Law is like leverage. It makes the upside better, but it makes the downside worse. It means the industry has to run just to stand still -- and it means that, during this tech recession, with each new day in which the industry didn't run fast enough, the volume hurdles to get back to peak revenues just get higher and higher. trendmacro.com Sam

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