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Technology Stocks : Leap Wireless International (LWIN)

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To: A.L. Reagan who wrote (2393)7/19/2002 3:23:11 PM
From: pcstel  Read Replies (1) of 2737
 
"Let's say for kicks and grins that LWIN had actually issued 20 million add'l shares at the beginning of the year when the stock was selling for $15 ps - and used the $300 mil of proceeds to retire (at that time) around $400 mil of 13% coupon debt."

ERICY LU AND NT are dying for cash. Better to buy down the Vendor debt (lower % rate than the coupon debt) at 25 cents on the dollar. 250 million gets you 1 Billion in Vendor Debt! ERICY has a fire sale going on now!

However, the solution for the entire industry has to be consolidation.

Here is how I would play it.

AWE merges with VoiceStream.
AWE kills VoiceStreams aggressive Anytime Bucket Plans, and integrates the VoiceStream GSM network into AWE's.

Now, you attack the so called "Nationwide Carriers" that do not actually control Nationwide Footprints but, rely on the Nationwide Carriers for roaming services..

Cingular gets cut out of any roaming agreements with AWE and Voicestream. (Cingular No longer nationwide)

Same goes for Alltel.

You are now left with only 4 Carriers that can offer close to "Nationwide Roaming Services".. Thus allows them to raise prices for their more exclusive services by offering "nationwide plans". They kill Free Long Distance! This increases operating margins and lowers Average MOU's per month. 3 of the remaining 4 nationwide providers have an interest in preserving Long Distance Revenues in the Wireline Market. ATT, Sprint, Verizon.

Once PCS launches Push to Chat. Nextel's ARPU and Churn are at risk to PCS.

LWIN, Northcoast, Metro, and Qwest get bought out by Cingular and Alltel trying to complete a larger coverage area.

PCSTEL
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