Hi Sam,
I read the article a while back and branded it a contrary indicator. When people say that the problem in the semiconductor industry is Moore's law, then it is time to buy.
I received no comment on my recent claim that some analysts were not very bright and my presentation of their not very bright logic. I will discuss the not very bright logic exhibited by the portfolio manager.
First the basic assumption posed, that "customers...want the same old power" can be extended to easily destroy our whole economy. Suppose customers want the same old thing! Suppose they only want to replace what they have with an exact copy and only when it wears out beyond repair. Nothing new, nothing changed, no improvements.
If "customers...want the same old power", then Moore's law will continue to make it less and less expensive and fewer and fewer resources will be devoted. If "the same old power"
is not a commodity, it may become more and more profitable as there will be no incentive (elasticity) to pass on all of the lowered cost, except competition.
"During this tech recession", Moore's Law is not being applied to existing products ("the same old power"). The roll out of new technology, 300mm, low K dielectric, copper, 0.18u, 0.15u, 0.13u, has moved very deliberately and is driven by the ramp up of new products (not "the same old power") that have customer demand. In fact, in many cases, Moore's Law makes the new products that customers demand, feasible.
I understand the chief cause of this portfolio manager's miscue. He judges Moore's Law in its most well known context, PC processors, and sees that customers are not demanding more power and that PC prices are falling. This is not a problem inherent in Moore's Law, but a special situation cause by the Anti-Moore's Law (as in anti-Christ) that dominates the PC industry. Yes, you guessed it, the anti-Christ of the PC industry is MSFT. Even an irresistible force such as Moore's Law can be hobbled by the immovable criminal monopolist that has completely stifled all innovation in PC related software except the so-called "innovation" within its walls which is primarily designed to destroy competition. |
