patron,
Think on this. We have always maintained that the real deal is the credit bubble, not the shocking but less important tech bubble. In the scheme of things, the tech bubble was a bit of a red herring, a side-effect if you will.
(For the one or two people who might not have followed things closely over the last 5 or 6 years, the credit bubble is everything. Forget the economic numbers. Forget valuation. "It's the credit bubble, stupid.")
Second, I have always maintained that this bear market will last 6-12 years. (To remind folks, that's a wide range, but it depends on what we are correcting. If we are correcting the run out of 1982, then it will be on the shorter end of the range. If we are correcting the run out of 1974, which I favour, then it will be longer. [If we are correcting the entire 5 wave rise out of 1932, then... well, frankly, I really would rather not talk about it. -ng])
Here's my problem. The credit bubble is under direct attack now. We are done with the glancing blows and are pricking the bubble. If it bursts, then I fear that this could spiral. I would be much happier finding a middle road that would take more time. I am very uncomfortable as a trader seeing a straight-line decline. |
