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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity
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To: pvz who wrote (15293)7/19/2002 10:23:41 PM
From: Warpfactor  Read Replies (1) of 23153
 
pvz,

I probably need to take a vacation on Monday and Tuesday and be disconnected from the world.
Just earlier this week my trading account boasted 40% YTD gains, now thats been cut in half. There is a not insignificant chance that I will go negative YTD on Monday or Tuesday. Such is the game that I am playing - high potential reward but high risk. Note to self - work on a lower risk, capital preservation strategy.

Probably the best thing would be for the markets to open down big Monday with a big reversal either Monday or Tuesday. Opening to the upside (and closing up) may be a setup for more grinding in the upcoming days and weeks.

Back to TRIN - here is data from last Sept. The righthand column being the close. As you can see, TRIN never got very high, even into the teeth of the post Sept 11 selloff. Which leads me to postulate that TRIN is more effective as an indicator in the earlier stages of a bear selloff when techs and other higher beta darlings are the first to go. But at the end of the selloff, Joe/Jane Sixpack are liquidating index funds which results in the modest daily TRINs. Any thoughts?

28-Sep-01 0.09 0.99 0.09 0.71
27-Sep-01 1.13 1.57 0.92 0.94
26-Sep-01 0.76 2.05 0.59 1.69
25-Sep-01 1.31 1.62 0.62 0.96
24-Sep-01 0.16 0.62 0.16 0.55
21-Sep-01 12.38 13.88 0.33 0.7
20-Sep-01 2.01 2.98 0.75 1.18
19-Sep-01 0.46 1.85 0.46 0.89
18-Sep-01 0.58 1.15 0.55 1.14
17-Sep-01 0.99 2.42 0.88 1.37
10-Sep-01 4.71 4.71 0.44 0.68
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