Que,
There is a thing I have learned in my short 9 years as an investor. And that is not to use rose-colored glasses to make investment decisions. Or in the case of a pessimist - bear-colored glasses (maybe you can think of a better term).
When I try to play macro-economist, and look at the world around me (how crowded is the local Home Depot and Applebees), and read the prevailing sentiment on the message boards and CNBC, and try to base investment decisions on that, that is a recipe for failure.
There are some really smart people who build models which feed in various global economic data, and can get away with it - trading based on macro-economic conditions.
And there are those of you (including yourself) who appear to be so in tune to the conditions of a specific sector, that they can successfully trade stocks in that sector.
For people like me, the best thing we can do is trade off of what the market is telling us. And the market is telling us (via VIX, ARMs, MacLellan, ADX, et. al.) that a major intermediate bottom is currently being put in. Am I jumping the gun and playing all my cards too early?? Maybe - I could certainly do without the stress. I can see a case where the market (DOW) drops 500 pts on Monday, NAZ is down 75, and KB and Dabum swoop in to snatch up stocks on the cheap where I have to suffer a 10% hit before getting rewarded. But there is also the scenario where Monday opens up, froths around for an hour, and then shoots straight up.
I respect your views and Whitepines as well, and always read your posts. Particularly yours because of your track record with energy equities. But ask yourself if you are basing your investment decisions based upon your own personal world view.
You say tech is dead (or flat at best for the next 5 years) - seen the Semiconductor Equipment Book-to-Bill lately?? Yet I keep reading here on SI from people that the B-to-B is a "fluke", and the billings will get canceled in a few months. They are willing to set aside hard numbers for a gut feeling.
Warp |
