We'll see, soon, just how exceptionally cruel this bear can be.
You're not the only one, Tom, who thinks an excellent trading low, if not necessarily THE bottom, is shaping up. Though the tone has been decidedly negative for quite some time, though a number of "traditional" contrarian indicators are lined up, as you've enumerated, there are still a number of people, like yourself, who've been stepping forward, either as traders or as value investors, and have announced various levels of conviction (from "beginning to scale in" to "err on the side of purchases" to "plenty of good values").
I'm a daytrader, so I'll just pick and choose my moments, short or long, and otherwise watch the show, but, if I had to place a bet, I'd probably side with you all. Still, as I'm sure you're aware, there are several "crashes come from oversold levels" scenarios out there also. It's quite possible, for instance, that the bear-bearing magazine covers and distraught trader photos are appearing relatively near a bottom - in time and price - but only as seen from a very long-term horizon within which 500 or a 1000 points or five weeks or five months one way or another won't seem like much. And it's possible that many of the indicators you've described will turn out to be "broken" or for all intents and purposes irrelevant this time around.
Right now, this bear is already a pretty big bear by some measures. Though I wish you and the rest of the long swingers and investors the best of luck, I have to admit that a part of me - the same part of me that enjoys record-setting sports performances but also finds human tragedies and natural disasters fascinating - would get a kick out of a "whoosh" Monday that DIDN'T reverse, disappointing and breaking the latest and perhaps last wave of volunteers assembling for mass assaults on the bear pillboxes and trenches.
Where's your stop? |
