A fellow named Dave Stack, who i have great respect for, was on the PBS Stock Market Report on Friday and asked is this going to be a bottom this week. Simply replied "We are in uncharted waters and i will not be calling 'this is the bottom' because frankly we don't know where it is." The host on the show noted that Mr.Stack had liquidated his fund of equities in March 2000 and Mr.Stack said he was now 60% cash, and otherwise extremely conservatively invested.
His advice to small investors , stay on the sidelines, capital preservation is the rule of the day.(unfortunately he gave no advice to those still invested).
I just read a feature story from the 7/14 NYT on the how this downturn has been most devastating to the 55-64 year age group.
It is all quite sad.
All bottoms i may call are strictly shorterm/intermediate calls that are then to be sold, and i haven't, for my way of conservative trading, seen such a moment since the end Septemper 2001 for buyside trading. I am totally useless to daytraders:)
I will stand with Mr.Stack and say we are in uncharted water. The chart only we have do have is the 1929 to well into 1932 post bubble massacre, but we are the greatest bubble ever(at our peak we were twice the size of the 1929 bubble, so uncharted is the word in that we are in the aftermath of history's most spectacular bubble)
<<Of course, institutional money managers probably control 70% of the market. I'm sure they will convert most of their cash and bond holdings into equity holdings as soon as they believe the market has bottomed. Fund redemptions, the falling dollar, lack of confidence in corporate reporting, and the difficulty in comparing corporate revenues and sales as reporting standards change won't have any impact on institutional money managers. Or will they.>> that is a long discussion, later;) max |
