Tom,
What a lot of sweat! Here is my strategy as a comparison.
I pulled the lever once on 11/1/2001 for a $50,000 buy of Rydex URSA (symbol RYURX). That bought me a 4,438.33 shares at $11.14 each.
Last night July 19, 2002, RYRUX stood at $14.00. On 12/7/2001, the fund paid me a dividend of 18.374 shares at $10.41. Last night my shares were worth $64,015.72 for a gain of just over $14,000 or a return of 13.92%, or an annualized gain of 20.98%.
I didn't sweat, curse, mumble or use a fancy model. The model is clear. There was a bubble and it will fall as irrationally far as it went up. I'm sitting waiting for the inevitable "summer rally" before it plummets again. I will probably wait until the market goes up 10% from here and sell the fund. By September I will be back in RYURX.
Even if I miss the "top", I will be able to sleep at night. Look for 4,000 on the Dow, 600 on the Nasdaq and 400 on the S&P 500 by the end of 2003.
David |
