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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity

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To: Gottfried who wrote (15325)	7/20/2002 6:26:38 PM
From: Warpfactor	Read Replies (1) of 23153

Gottfried, re:>seen the Semiconductor Equipment Book-to-Bill lately?? Yet I keep reading here on SI from people that the B-to-B is a "fluke", and the billings will get canceled in a few months. They are willing to set aside hard numbers for a gut feeling.< Here is a guy flailing away looking for reasons to debunk the BtoB: Message 17767137 This is better, from IHUB: <<<Zeev... Good call on the btb - I was not sure if the things I have been hearing would be in this month's report or not. As for myself, I am confident from my sources that the fundamentals of the equipment sector are once again beginning to deteriorate, and thus will be likely to look elsewhere for rally candidates. That certainly does not mean they cannot be winners in a rally since all are high beta stocks that have been stronger than the rest of the market so far. What worries me most is that some of the biggest names (like AMAT) report next month and a warning or two could come at any time, which would hurt the entire group. >>> LOL!!! This guy has "sources" which in his view carry more weight than actual hard numbers. Here is someone who has so firmly convinced himself of the bearish cause, that he is not mentally capable of accepting any positive economic news. Now, I am not saying that the markets will not tank to NAZ 800 or DOW 6000 in a few months, but this guy would be better off citing some article saying something about time when the stock market sucked despite a robust economy. Here is another thing that has been bugging me: people keep looking at trailing PE's when coming up with these NAZ PE ratios. The trailing PEs are nearly meaningless. Last year was one of the worst on record, slumping sales resulted in a hit to the bottom line for tech companies. Then throw on restructuring costs. So now you are left with lean mean tech companies. Once again in the near future we will see the outlandish headlines "XXX Technologies earnings improves 800%" as modest sales increases of 15-20% flow primarily to the bottom line. Instead of earning .02 per share, companies earn .16 per share. The company is not growing 800%, but the earnings when compared to the toughest year on record should appear to be astonishing. Warp

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