Here are the Naz 100 stocks, and their trailing PEs.
This post from JPS at the FOOL
(Remember two years ago when I used to do this to demonstrate how overbloated the Naz was?)
Well. Now, instead of having 20 or so Naz stocks with no earnings, the Index has exactly half, 50, including Worldcom.
The median Naz PE when stocks were so overvalued was DELL at 74.1. The median Naz PE today--well, there is no median Naz PE. Half the companies on the Index are making solid money in their most recent history. And half are not.
How many of these companies will punch into earnings in a year? Even if half of them do, half of them may not make it. My guess is that many companies will be swapped out of the Naz next year. If you're thinking of buying one of the earningsless companies because it looks like a "bargain" at its price, know that it could get cut loose from indexing, and key price life support.
Two years ago, the list was putrid from an earnings perspective. Now, it's so bad, it barely deserves to be called an Index.
No TA here, just eyeballs, but just looking at how bad this list is, with only 30 companies at this late stage congealing into actual, dependable earnings generating companies, without wholesale swapping of stocks out of the index the Naz seems certain to me to dive under 1000 before there's a bottom. It's not a matter of, "what's a good PE for these kind of companies, the old rules don't apply, you just don't get it, you insolent old people" anymore. It's a matter of, "Get some effing earnings going for four straight quarters or cease to have meaning as an Index of anything other than potential insolvency." Right now, the future of the Index looks worse than it did in June 2000.
YHOO N/E*
XLNX N/E*
VTSS N/E*
VRTS N/E*
VRSN N/E*
USAI N/E*
TLAB N/E*
SUNW N/E*
SEPR N/E*
SANM N/E*
RATL N/E*
QCOM N/E*
PMCS N/E*
PDLI N/E*
NXTL N/E*
NTAP N/E*
NPR N/E*
MLNM N/E*
MEDI N/E*
JDSU N/E*
IVGN N/E*
ITWO N/E*
IMCL N/E*
IDTI N/E*
ICOS N/E*
HGSI N/E*
GMST N/E*
GENZ N/E*
FLEX N/E*
ERICY N/E*
DISH N/E*
CPWR N/E*
CNXT N/E*
CMVT N/E*
CMCSK N/E*
CIEN N/E*
CHTR N/E*
CEPH N/E*
BRCM N/E*
BRCD N/E*
BEAS N/E*
ATML N/E*
AMZN N/E*
AMCC N/E*
AMAT N/E*
ALTR N/E*
ADCT N/E*
ABGX N/E*
RFMD 135.00
EBAY 114.50
SYMC 101.70
MOLX 92.90
CSCO 91.00
GILD 88.20
MERQ 86.40
INTU 86.20
MXIM 81.40
ERTS 79.70
CYTC 71.00
NVLS 66.20
INTC 62.20
MCHP 56.00
SSCC 55.40
IDPH 55.40
DELL 54.50
QLGC 52.20
SPOT 51.70
CHIR 48.80
CEFT 42.20
APOL 42.10
LLTC 41.90
SNPS 41.10
SBUX 39.40
BBBY 37.00
KLAC 35.70
MSFT 35.10
ADBE 33.40
AMGN 33.10
PAYX 31.90
CTAS 31.60
AAPL 29.90
ADRX 28.50
PSFT 28.10
FISV 28.10
BMET 26.30
ESRX 25.30
TMPW 25.00
SEBL 24.50
DLTR 24.30
COST 24.00
CDWC 23.60
PCAR 23.20
ORCL 22.60
SIAL 22.10
SPLS 21.30
BGEN 19.80
NVDA 14.20
CHKP 11.80
CTXS 11.20
WCOME honorable mention
For a look at how the Naz looked two years ago, when there were less than half the number of companies with no trailing earnings than there were today:
boards.fool.com
These aren't new companies anymore, these companies that are populating the Naz. Most of them are over 10 years old. There's no excuse for this kind of Index even existing. Currently, it is measuring nothing but bad commercial paper.
jeanpaulsartre |
