Technology Stocks & Market Talk With Don Wolanchuk Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Technology Stocks & Market Talk With Don Wolanchuk

SOXL 41.73

-3.0%

Nov 7 4:00 PM EST

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To: da_cheif™ who started this subject	7/21/2002 4:36:33 AM
From: Runomo™	Read Replies (1) of 206775

Although I don't feel as good as I did two weeks ago, I still managed to find a few cheery tidbits in this market. Bear in mind though that the violation of the long term support/necklines on all major indexes can not be taken lightly. They are red flags especially given last week's follow thru on heavy volume. But rarely do major support/necklines once broken from above don't get tested again from below. So even if this turns out to be the real dreaded secular bear that we all hope it isn't, there will still be time to exit. The SPX for example will at least rally to 950 very soon IMO to test it's neckline from below.The quality of the rally will determine whether it's primary wave 3 or just a faceless bounce in an on- going secular bear market. First, cumulative weekly NYSE advancing-declining issues: stockcharts.com Accelerating downward at a more rapid pace recently but positive divergences still in place. Second, NYSE new highs-new lows: stockcharts.com Hardly a dent despite recent carnage. Third, Naz new highs-new lows: stockcharts.com Again positively divergent on the weekly basis. A textbook example of what you want to see on a double bottom retest for major important bottoms. Fourth, put/call ratio: stockcharts.com 1.13 close is no small feat on it's own...but more importantly note the chart of relative strength to SPX both daily and weekly. Yesterday's close registered a wider deviation from it's EMA(10) than the higher read of 1.27. fifth, Naz 100 bullish percent index: stockcharts.com Current read of 35 from a low of 1 Sept 01 and a low of 8 just from the beginning of July.This sector will lead the next rally. Sixth, Naz stockcharts.com Weekly MACD positive divergences remain intact plus we now have daily positive divergences between the beginning of July lows and last weeks lows. Plus sentiment continue to be obscene. Record outflows from the market last two weeks. NYSE specialists continue to accumulate. Investors intelligence has more bears than bulls again. Vix is blowing off and Vixen put a bearish weekly dark cloud cover stick last week. Cheers, Mo

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