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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 230.77+0.9%3:59 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (64963)7/21/2002 10:24:04 AM
From: Alastair McIntosh  Read Replies (2) of 70976
 
Several reasons Gottfried:

1. Seasonality
2. Technical.
3. Sept Q is first Q that CEO's have to personally sign off on financial statements.
4. Economic outlook will worsen as consumer spending no longer props up economy. Housing bubble begins to deflate.
5. In tech land realization that there is no second half recovery and poor visibility for 03. End demand does not support turnaround. Realization that this up cycle in tech will not have growth rate of previous cycles.
6. Probability of exogenous shock such as terrorist attacks or Mideast war.

My crystal ball is cloudy but balance of probabilities suggest to me that we have more pain ahead.

Do you disagree? Do you think that this is the bottom?
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