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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: sylvester80 who wrote (96667)7/21/2002 2:45:47 PM
From: XBrit  Read Replies (1) of 99280
 
The "Fed" model was completely wrong through most of the 60's boom. Interest rates kept going up, and the stock market kept going up. It's only appeared to work since 1980, because interest rates and the markets happen to have had a secular trend in opposite directions through that period. Mostly a coincidence, if you look at it on a 50-100 year timescale.

This very issue is discussed in much detail in "Valuing Wall Street" by Smithers and Wright... an excellent book.

amazon.com
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