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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace
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To: Perspective who wrote (46547)7/21/2002 9:16:26 PM
From: reaper  Read Replies (1) of 209892
 
bobcor -- my thoughts exactly (see my post to AA of Saturday AM). one of my very best friends is an expert in linear control, though referencing Minsky and Soros for my thoughts seemed a little more credible than a crackpot MIT prof. <g>

<<the liquidity input applied in preparation for Y2K was so huge that it swamped out the natural response of the system>>

i think we may be seeing the equal and opposite move here, with Worldcom being the precipitating event for the liquidity drain. while the press is all agog about $3.8 billion (or whatever it is) of mis-accounted expenses, what they really SHOULD be investigating and writing about is what Worldcom means to the credit industry. One can only guess what entities are in trouble as CDOs stacked w/ Worldcom debt suddenly have cash shortfalls; if the holders of these CDOs are themselves leveraged then they will have to sell good credits to stay liquid, which will reduce credit availability to even good borrowers. with less credit comes a failure to get securitization deals done, which undermines the balance sheets of everybody from ACF to Sears, which means they can't extend more credit to their customers, and so on and so on and so on.

IF this happens, it will precipitate relentless selling of everything (probably gold too). i would not want to be the management team of a credit insurer right now, thats for sure.

Cheers
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