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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: Win-Lose-Draw who wrote (96963)7/22/2002 11:45:55 AM
From: Ron Dior  Read Replies (1) of 99280
 
ron, the only problem i have with your position is that you don't seem to understand that if a market is truly unpredictable in the short-term it is also unpredictable in the long run.

You are correct but the main problem that exists with a short-term view is not so much in knowing what will happen as is in developing a psychological impediment. There are mixed convictions being had when trading short term and this will cause your emotions to get in the way. There is no real reason why a stock moves up or down in a short time frame so by trying to use charts or historical indicators you are only guessing. If a company has good technology, people and other fundamentals then long term you can to some degree know they will be OK. By buying and holding a company like this until or unless one of these things changes is taking risk but remember without risk, gain is not possible. The only thing you need to know is when and what to buy. This is where knowledge is needed. You watch a company you know and like and when it has finally made a base and then breaks out of that base on heavy volume you buy it and hold it until something changes that made you buy it in the first place. There are no guessing or psychological games that you need to play. I felt this way about several companies back in Oct. so I bought into them. Would I have been right to try and trade in and out of them between Oct. and today? More than likely my portfolio would look no different than it does at present. The big difference would be in my psychology. See, once the company starts to really move up if I had been trading in and out I would continue to do so more than likely missing the big money move to the upside. My conviction tells me nothing has changed fundamentally and the stock has based. This allows me to hold it and wait for the big payoff. This payoff will continue until or if the company changes one of these qualifications. This could be 30 days or 20 years but has nothing to do with short-term movement of price.

This is the way to make real money. Maybe not as exciting as short-term trading, but it works.

Ron Dior
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