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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 229.12

-0.2%

Nov 26 3:59 PM EST

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To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (144039)	7/22/2002 6:48:00 PM
From: Gary Walker	Read Replies (3) of 164684

We should focus our energy on the future.... Guess here that William is smart enough to have a least some of the bases covered, but that's his business. We shouldn't live in the past and should snap out of it. Where are we going from here? My guess is that there's more irrational pain on the downside to come. It's always about figuring out the state of investor psychology. Fundamentals don't matter if investors are fearful or fearless with their money. Remember when each large drop in the dow brought in the buying and the market went up? Now we get short covering rallies that will surely "trick" investors to think the bear run is over. THINGS have changed. I wouldn't be surprised to see 4000-5000 on the Dow in the next 12 months. Percentage wise the Dow has held up well versus the NAZ. The teeny bopper investors have lost their asses with technology ladden portfolios. They're out of the market and are swearing off stocks. It will be years before many of them return. They saw investing as the FAD of the century. Everyone was getting rich betting on loser dot coms. Now even the best dot coms are struggling. Trading opportunities will be there and anything yielding 8-10% is worthy of a hold. There will be lots of opportunities to load up on discounted stock, but I don't think it's going to be in the next few months. The economy is being hurt by a reverse of the wealth effect. The fed is between a rock and a hard place. Loosen too much and you get inflation. Loosen too little and you get deflation and depression. Greenspan didn't sound like much of a cheerleader the other day. Maybe he'll come to investors rescue with an "emergency" rate cut like he did in '98. It was that famous cut that fueled the current disaster in the equity markets. He prolonged the bubble and just made it larger. The pin prick was felt by all. In any case, confidence is battered by too many crooked corporate leaders, a sick equity market, and worry about terrorists. Darkest before the storm? Well, get set for the storm.

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